Ukraine’s surprise counter-offensive, which started on September 6th*, has dealt Russian forces a significant blow in the country’s north-east. Months of Russian gains have unravelled within days as Ukrainian forces have seized occupied territories with lightning speed, routing entire units and leaving others scrambling to escape encirclement. With the Ukrainian flag now flying in several liberated towns and villages in the Kharkiv region and Russian forces retreating, the daring offensive may mark a turning point in the war. But why does the region matter?

The Kharkiv region in north-east Ukraine is of considerable cultural and military value to Ukraine and Russia. Kharkiv, the regional capital, is Ukraine’s second- largest city. Though Kharkiv has an overwhelmingly Russian-speaking population, it is a melting pot for Ukrainian nationalism. During the Soviet era, the industrial city was the capital of Ukraine but since independence, it has returned to its cultural and scientific roots and boasts numerous high seats of education committed to training the next generation of soldiers and intelligence officials. The city’s position in the Ukrainian borderlands, 30 miles from Russia, has made Kharkiv a battleground for centuries. The site of three battles in the second world war alone, the region has long been regarded as a gateway to the Donbas in eastern Ukraine and the Black Sea.

Today, its military value remains undiminished. Kharkiv is just north of the Donbas where two pro-Russian, self-proclaimed “republics” in Luhansk and Donetsk have been supported by Vladimir Putin’s regime since 2014. When Russian forces launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, it hoped to use Kharkiv as a pivot to envelope Ukrainian forces across the Donbas. Stiff resistance thwarted these ambitious plans as Russian and Ukrainian forces dug in for a war of attrition. Russia used the town of Izyum as a platform for more modest offensives into the Donbas while Kupyansk’s railways were critical to keeping its forces fed, fuelled and armed. Ukraine’s advance, along with the capture of Izyum and Kupyansk, has dislocated the Russian flank and severed supply lines. This success was dependent on the skilful use of advanced weapons systems supplied by the West. This included the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM) which decimated Russia’s lines of communication, its air- defence radar and denied Russian planes free movement near the front lines. This allowed Ukrainian armour to cut through Russian lines and take control of almost all of the region.

The offensive is an important victory for Ukraine, ending Russian efforts to encircle its forces in the Donbas. Ukrainian forces are high in morale, better equipped than their Russian counterparts and now, crucially, have momentum on their side. For Russia, the repercussions go beyond military humiliation. Losing its footing in Kharkiv has jeopardised its operations in eastern Ukraine as a whole where Russian forces are spread thin, low on morale and on the backfoot. For the first time, a Russian defeat in Ukraine has become a possibility.

Dangers lie ahead though. Almost one-fifth of Ukraine remains occupied and Ukrainian efforts to retake Kherson in the south have been slow and costly. In Kharkiv, the Russians have already hit back by crippling power and water supplies across the region and as their forces look to regroup, overreach by Ukrainian forces remains a real risk as they continue pushing east. For Russian President Vladimir Putin, who remains determined to achieve “all the goals” of his “special military operation”, escalating the conflict is an option to reverse Ukrainian gains and quash growing dissent at home. A new and more dangerous phase in the war may be about to begin.

*This article was originally published September 20th, 2022