The spectre of all-out war looms between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus after fighting broke out in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory on 27th September 2020. A surprise offensive launched by Azerbaijan’s army, and the response of the Armenians, has resulted in the fiercest combat seen in the region since the last war between 1991-1994.

Atleast 5,000 combatants and civilians have died and an estimated 75,000 civilians - half of Karabakh’s population - have reportedly been displaced with human rights groups accusing each side of using cluster bombs in civilian-populated areas. The sight of broken, gutted buildings and homes reduced to rubble by renewed war has decimated and divided communities who have watched old wounds in the region reopen. The ceasefire brought into effect has been violated multiple times.

Other powers in the Caucasus, including Russia, Turkey and Iran, risk being sucked into the vortex of a regional war. Furthermore, the geopolitical tensions in the Caucasus risk exacerbating civil wars in the Middle East and North Africa where Russia and Turkey, both involved in the current Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, are also active participants in Libya and Syria.

In seven trends for conflict identified by International Crisis Group in the wake of the Covid-19’s spread around the world, the pandemic risked undermining international crisis management and conflict resolution mechanisms and could see regional and international powers exploit the crisis to embark on destabilising political adventures at home or abroad. In Nagorno-Karabakh, these two fears which could shape conflict in the post-pandemic world have been on devastating display for the millions of civilians caught between Armenia and Azerbaijan’s military forces locked in conflict along the Line of Contact.

As Thomas De Waal, Senior Associate on the Caucasus for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes in The Caucasus: An Introduction, for ‘distant observers, the war is one of flickering episodes,’ one where ‘international interest in the conflict is intermittent, and the world’s media failed to give a coherent picture of it.’ [1]

As with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the multiple conflicts between Pakistan and India over Kashmir and the Kosovo War, the historic roots of Armenia and Azerbaijan’s conflict are complex, span generations and are passionately contested by historians, activists, lobbies and politicians on both sides of the warring countries. For beginners navigating the different narratives of the conflict, understanding the region’s history and the relationship between these two countries is crucial, and help them get their heads around rapidly unfolding but highly nuanced events.

WHERE IS NAGORNO-KARABAKH?

The region has different names in different communities and countries. The Armenians call it Artsakh while the Azerbaijanis name it Dağlıq Qarabağ. The Russian Empire and the Soviet Union called it Nagorny-Karabakh.*

Located in the South Caucasus - a region which straddles Central Asia, the Middle East and is tied to Russia’s southern border - the mountainous territory borders Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan. ‘The highland is a beautiful, fertile patch of green between arid plains on either side,’ [2] but is named for its imposing, black mountain range which is filled with vineyards, eye-catching pastures for farming. It is steeped in history with a large fortress, churches and mosques dotting Nagoro-Karabakh with ‘strong connections to both the Armenians and Azerbaijan.’ [3] Many refer to the region as ‘The Black Garden’ because of its rich, black earth and imposing mountain range.

The old capital of Nagorno-Karabakh is Shusha (the Armenians call it Shushi) and has been central to the current conflict due it geographical position in the mountains - it is home to an imposing fortress which was finished in 1751 by Panakh-Ali-Khan. Shusha/Shusi has been devastated by war three times. Nagorono-Karabakh’s current regional capital is Stepanakert.

*For convenience, this author will refer to the region as Nagorno-Karabakh.

WHO LIVES IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH?

Nearly 150,000 people currently live in Nagorno-Karabakh. As History Today noted, ‘historically, the majority of its population have been Armenians, but it has deep geographical, cultural and economic connections with the lowlands of Azerbaijan,’ and ties to Turkic history. [4] 

The region’s position as a geographical borderland has meant Nagorno-Karabakh has developed unique identity over time because of its multi-ethnic diversity. Karabakh Armenians and Karabakh Azeris shared common practices and traditions, including language, music and culture before the conflict between Armenian and Azeri nationalists escalated.

This intimate sharing of culture and history has been neglected by multiple factions involved in the conflict and diplomacy with both the Karabakh Armenians and Azerbaijanis frustrated that they have not been represented at the peace-talks despite their lands being at the centre of the current war. All too frequently, the history of Nagoro-Karabakh has been utilised to reinforce polarised narratives, propaganda and myths which fuel the conflict.

WHO DOES THE REGION BELONG TO?

A complex question.

Nagorno-Karabakh has been under the control of multiple empires acting as a springboard to the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and the North Caucasus. It has been ruled by Macedonians, Armenians until 387 AD, Arabs, Safavids, Seljuk Turks, Byzantines, medieval Armenian princes and principalities, Mongols, Tsarist Russia, the British (briefly), Communist Russia and is now contested by the young nation-states of Armenia and Azerbaijan who gained independence during the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. The rush for independence ‘left the region the subject of an interstate dispute.’ [5]

Although some consider it to be a de-facto independent state, both Armenia and Azerbaijan do not currently recognise the independence of the region (though the former maintains a strong military and contemporary economic and cultural presence in the republic). Officially, the international community recognises Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan though, again, this is fiercely contested by the Armenians who regard Artsakh as part of their ancient history.

HOW DID THE ORIGINAL CONFLICT START?

The roots of the conflict lay in the surge of nationalism, ethnic violence and revolution across the region before, during and after the First World War. Much of this instability was sown by the collapse of Tsarist Russia and the rise of the Soviet Union and communism.

Armenian and Azerbaijani nationalist movements were emerging in waning years of the Russian Empire. For the Armenians, who were facing persecution and repression in Russia and the South Caucasus (then part of Tsarist Russia) and genocide in Ottoman Turkey, it was a traumatic moment in their history. Increasing regional tensions as a result of state-sponsored genocide - which would climax during the First World War - and expropriation of Armenian land by the tsar coupled with the rise of Azerbaijani nationalism saw the outbreak of the so-called ‘Armeno-Tartar War’ in 1905.

Thousands died in the bloodshed and tit-for-tat pogroms that ensued. Tsarist Russia, barely containing revolution at home, could do little to abet the violence as the empire unravelled and the Communists eventually rose to power in Russia. Before the nationalist movements in Azerbaijan and Armenia could fully form, the Soviet Union seized the Caucasus. Communist ideology and Kemalist nationalism in Turkey (once the Ottoman Empire had fallen) conspired to crush budding Azerbaijani and Armenian nationalism in the South Caucasus. The Armenians who formed the short-lived Republic of Armenia lost further territory in the post-war agreements between the Allies, Russia and Kemalist Turkey, and it took two months for the Soviets to put down resistance in Azerbaijan.

The conflict between the Armenians and Azerbaijani nationalists were effectively frozen by the Soviet authorities. The Bolsheviks redrew the map of the South Caucasus - naming it the Transcaucasian Federation - including modern-day Nagorno-Karabakh. It was Joseph Stalin, a young, ruthless and ambitious commissar for nationalities who dissected the region.

Over the course of two days in July, 1921, the Caucasus Bureau seemed to opt in favour of the Armenian claim (to Nagorno-Karabakh) on one day, but the next day ruled in favour of Soviet Azerbaijan. The population was 94 percent Armenian…Only one pocket of territory with a large Azerbaijani population, Shusha, remained. It created an arrangement of uncertain allegiances. [6]

This decision, whether by incompetence or a specific ‘divide and conquer’ policy, was to become a ticking time-bomb once the Soviet Union began to disintegrate in the 1980s.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 1991-1994 WAR?

As the Soviet Union began to fall apart in the late 1980s, it was Karabakh which became the ‘first dissident region in 1988.’ [7]

Nationalism came to the fore over Nagorno-Karabakh, as Azerbaijanis and Armenians’ new-found political activism, open dissidence and protests brought them into opposition. These protests and counter-protests led to a rise in tensions. Fear of looming violence, threats by both sides and intimidation tactics fanned the political flames. A series of riots broke out in Azerbaijan against ethnic Armenians, the most violent of which were the Sumgait and Baku pogroms (1988 and 1990) Over 100 people were killed and thousands of Armenians fled.

In September 1991, the Karabakh Armenians (94 per cent of the population) held a referendum. This referendum was boycotted by Karabakh Azerbaijanis and resulted in a landslide victory for independence. The Azerbaijani government who regarded the referendum result as illegitimate, ‘voted to abolish the autonomous status of Nagorno-Karabakh and make it an ordinary province of Azerbaijan.’ [8] War broke out two months later, catalysed by the downing of an Azerbaijani helicopter with senior officials and Russian mediators onboard.

In the ensuing two years of fighting, an estimated 30,000 were killed and one million were displaced by the conflict. Atrocities were committed by paramilitaries and militias involved. By the end of the war, both sides were battered by fighting, and the conflict had led to one of the largest displacements of a civilian population seen since the Second World War. [9] The Armenians came out on top in the conflict capturing seven Azerbaijani regions and ended the war largely in control of Nagorno-Karabakh which the Azerbaijani government has labelled a military occupation of their territory.

WHY HAS THE WAR RESTARTED?

Peace remained elusive after the 1991-1994 conflict, and for three decades a ceasefire and peace talks held both countries back from sliding into another major war. Sporadic fighting and skirmishes have escalated in recent years. In 2016, dozens of people were killed along the Line of Contact. At the time the four-day conflict was the worst bloodshed seen since 1994. In July 2020, another round of fighting dealt a bad blow to ‘breakthrough accords in 2018 and 2019. These understandings for the first time in over fifteen years reopened direct communication lines between security personnel and political representatives in both capitals.’ [9]

According to Armenia’s Ministry of Defence, it was the Azeris who struck first on September 27th, launching a major offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh, under the occupation of military forces. The Azeris argue that Armenians shelled villages along the frontline, forcing a response in contested territories. “It is difficult to get a clear picture. The Armenians are saying the Azeris are attacking the regional capital of Stepanakert. This is a very significant development because the city wasn’t targeted last time there was a major conflict (2016),” said Robin Foreister-Walker, a reporter for Al-Jazeera. “This is a very serious cause for concern. The fact that Stepanekert was targeted really ups the ante.”

In a statement published on its website, The Institute for the Study of War noted that in 2020, responsibility lay with the Azeris for escalating the conflict.

Turkish-Azerbaijani military cooperation, drone sales, and force mobilisation indicate Azerbaijan prepared – with Turkish support - to dispute Armenia’s presence in Nagorno-Karabakh prior to September 27. Turkish and Azerbaijani forces conducted large-scale joint military exercises between July 29 and August 10 and conducted high-level bilateral meetings on July 16 and August 13. At a minimum (Turkey) prepared the assets that would be necessary to wage war and has fully supported Baku even if the offensive was either an independent Azerbaijani decision or an actual spontaneous escalation [10]

With President Recip Erdogan already flexing his military and geopolitical muscle in Syria and Libya for several years now, this development - along with Turkey’s strong cultural and military ties with Azerbaijan - would not be surprising but with limited information, it is difficult to determine the exact spark for renewed war between the two countries at this moment.

WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE SEPTEMBER 27TH?

An arms race in one of the world’s most militarised regions has wrought destruction as both the Armenians and Azeris have modernised their armies. Drone warfare has been a new feature in the current conflict, with ‘suicide’ drones and unmanned aerial vehicles being utilised while conventional airpower, artillery, and ballistic missiles have brought terror to Armenian and Azeri cities, towns and villages. The targeting of civilians could escalate the conflict further. As the charity Action on Armed Violence notes:

A second phase of the conflict has begun. Tactics have radically changed. Instead of a strategy using tanks, armoured personnel, artillery and drones to cause military damage, both sides are now primarily carrying out indiscriminate attacks on urban targets. [11]

Several ceasefires have been violated and a humanitarian truce brought into effect on October 18th was broken within minutes. On digital and social media channels, Armenia and Azeri lobbyists, activists and government channels have been flooded with propaganda as Baku and Yerevan seek to take hold of the narrative of the conflict.

Close to 5000 people have been killed in the conflict, and half of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh has been displaced by the war. The death toll is certain to be higher than official statistics published so far as the Armenian military has sustained heavy losses while Azerbaijan’s military are not even releasing the number of dead in the current offensive.

Armenia’s forces have been driven from territories within the region that it has held since the last major war. “Armenia needs the [truce] to carry on,” said Al Jazeera’s Bernard Smith, reporting from Yerevan. “[Hundreds] of ethnic Armenians fighters have been killed … and Armenia has lost control of a territory it has held since the end of the war in 1994.”

Despite Russia arming both sides, Turkey’s military support has given the Azeris a military advantage that they lacked previously, with a pro-Turkish new outlet, The Daily Sabah, stating that the Azeri military had ‘liberated’ over 30 villages. As International Crisis Group notes Azeri gains will bring retaliation from Armenian forces:

With the collapse of the Russian-brokered ceasefire, both parties look set to escalate fighting, with prospectively grave consequences. Azerbaijani advances fuel Armenian fears and counter-strikes. [12]

The fighting could end up devolving into a war of attrition in the mountainous terrain if Armenia blunts the Azeri offensive. Such warfare could result in a bloody and brutal battle for supremacy in Nagorno-Karabakh and could see this current war eclipse the casualties of the previous conflict. Given the weapons at the disposal of both sides now, the footage of dead Armenian soldiers, Azerbaijani soldiers and Syrian mercenaries being documented and spread on social media channels like Twitter and YouTube, as well as footage devastating drone strikes and pancaked buildings, this seems likely if the war goes on for months or years. Several war crimes, including the execution of prisoners of war, have already been allegedly committed.

With fighting already lasting for nearly a month, the new war could be prolonged, a tragedy for men, women and children trapped in a cycle of violence in Nagorno-Karabakh which local actors such as Iran, Turkey and Russia will want to contain to avoid a regional conflagration. There is no easy answer to resolving the conflict, but only a ceasefire and renewed talks will bring an elusive peace to the war-torn region.

IS THIS A RELIGIOUS WAR?

This is not a religious conflict. While Armenia is predominantly Christian and Azerbaijan is an Islamic country, it is a gross oversimplification for anyone to suggest that religion and faith is the key driver of conflict. It is a conflict defined by nationalism and land, and, to some extent, economics.

Armenians and Azerbaijanis have ‘intermingled in the South Caucasus (and in both countries now) for centuries with few instances of violence recorded between them before the end of the 19th century.’ [13] Shusha/Shushi, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, is dotted with both churches and mosques.

However, both sides have drawn on religious terminology, culture and history in the past to shore up their national claims to the territory. While this has led to ethnic tensions and violence in Nagoro-Karabakh, Azerbaijan and Armenia in the past, the conflict has not been primarily been fuelled by religious fanaticism.

USEFUL RESOURCES

REFERENCES

[1] Thomas De Waal, The Caucasus: An Introduction, 117.

[2] Ibid, 101.

[3] Ibid, 102.

[4] Nagorno-Karabakh’s Myth of Ancient Hatreds, published 8th October, 2020: https://www.historytoday.com/miscellanies/nagorno-karabakhs-myth-ancient-hatreds

[5] Thomas De Waal, The Caucasus: An Introduction, 114.

[6] Ibid, 104-105.

[7] Ibid, 109.

[8] Ibid, 114-115.

[9] Reducing the Human Cost of the New Nagorno-Karabakh War, International Crisis Group: https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-conflict/reducing-human-cost-new-nagorno-karabakh-war

[10] Erdogan Seeks to Upend Kremlin-Backed Status Quo in Nagorno-Karabakh, The Institute for the Study of War: http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Nagorno%20Karabakh%20October%2012%20final.pdf

[11] Nagorno-Karabakh: a rapid descent, Action on Armed Violence: https://aoav.org.uk/2020/nagorno-karabakh-a-rapid-descent

[12] Reducing the Human Cost of the New Nagorno-Karabakh War, International Crisis Group: https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-conflict/reducing-human-cost-new-nagorno-karabakh-war

[13] Thomas De Waal, The Caucasus: An Introduction, 102